It's been an interesting morning already with crude crashing 6.5% at one stage after markets opened this morning and there was failure in the Doha meeting to agree on a production freeze. Essentially what happened there is the Saudi's have decided that without Iran in the tent then there is no deal, and just last Friday they were threatening to flood the world with oil so it's pretty clear they're not terribly upset if prices continue to languish and that means that the supply/demand imbalance at the moment is not going to close any time soon.
In what's been a fairly benign night's trade the Aussie dollar has made a marginal new high and then pulled back, US stocks stalled in the face of solid overhead resistance, the DAX had a similar issue, and crude oil traders are waiting on the big meeting in Doha this weekend. The lack of catalysts has sapped gold's strength which is sliding back while Euro and yen are calm.
Risk was on last night in terms of Stocks. In Europe we saw some really powerful rallies, the Dax was up 2.71% and above 10,000 - it's on some really important resistance detailed in this video. CAC was up an amazing 3.3% and the FTSE was up just below 2% in London. The SPI200 here in Australia looks pretty positive, that may sound strange but it did find some solid support below the market and now the bears are being chased out by the bulls.
There was big 3% surge in West Texas (WTI) crude overnight took it up through the 200 DMA for the first time since July 2014. The market could clearly be preempting a deal that the Saudis, Russians, Kuwaitis and Iraqis may be able to cobble together but the reality is a move above the 200 DMA is a really bullish sign.
US stocks rallied overnight but were unable to hold onto their gains until close. The S&P closed at 2041, it's down a couple of points in Futures trade after the Alcoa report and it looks a little bit weak. The Dow had a similar 150 point rally only to turn into a 20 point loss. That hasn't hurt local markets too much, the SPI 200 is only down around 1 point but with the banks still under pressure and the markets still not very strong it could be another down-day. It was a down-day in Forex markets for the US Dollar, Sterling was very strong and the Yen is under 108.
It's going to be a big week for traders this week after we had a fractious week last week and stocks were unable to continue their rally. The big mover this week is going to be Earning Season in the US, there's some pretty bad news already packed in with around 9% drop in earnings in the market. That gives some scope for a big bounce but we'll have to see how it prints.
It's going to be interesting week this week because the Non Farm Payrolls printed right in that 'Goldilocks Zone' - 215,000 new jobs were created during the month of March. This was slightly stronger than expected, but with unemployment at 5% it really does tell you that the US economy is in that sweet spot.
It's April 1 and it's also Non Farm Payrolls day. It's been an interesting night overnight - the Aussie made a new high at 77.21 roughly, the Euro got up to around 114.10. Both of those levels are new highs for this run, but the USD has found a little bit of support largely on the back of Non Farms tonight expected to be another greater-than 200 print.
Interesting moves overnight, we've seen the Aussie trade over 77 cents for the first time since late June last year, stocks continue to rally and we've also seen the continued reverberations of Janet Yellen's speech yesterday.