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Mar 17-22: Russian politics, following on from the w/e Crimea vote, and FOMC to be the focus this week.

Early Aud trade is holding 0.9000 (just..) after the Crimea vote. Watch today’s China fix, following the w/e band widening.

Weekly FX outlook is provided by FX Charts. If you would like to receive this report in full on a daily basis you can subscribe to the FXCharts mailing list by going directly to www.FXCharts.com.au. NOTE: AxiTrader does not necessarily endorse the views expressed by FX Charts. It provides this information help our clients expand their knowledge in aspects of trading to help determine their own best approach.

The market finished the week on a nervous note ahead of the weekend referendum in Crimea. The vote is about 93% in favour of joining Russia, but in early trade most markets seem to be taking it in their stride and risk assets are currently holding their ground.Looking ahead aside from political headlines, the main focus will this week be on the FOMC and Janet Yellen’s update on Wednesday, which will also see some action in Cable after the BOE minutes, Jobs data and the UK Budget. Today sees the EU CPI and US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, US Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production. Watch the China Fix today, following the weekend band widening, and of course the action in Crimea.

Please note that we now put out a daily video of thoughts for the coming day which can be found on our Facebook page. Read the full FXCharts Weekly Outlook here or scan the market summary below.

CURRENCIES
EUR/USD: 1.3912 Outlook
Res 1.3930 1.3965 1.4000 The Euro finished the week back above 1.3900 despite the concerns ahead of the weekend referendum in the Crimea read more
Sup 1.3880 1.3850 1.3830
USD/JPY: 101.34 Outlook
Res 101.50 101.65 101.85 The Yen remained in demand ahead of the weekend Crimea referendum and on concerns over the direction of the Chinese economic trendsread more
Sup 101.20 101.00 100.75
GBP/USD: 1.6648 Outlook
Res 1.6670 1.6700 1.6715 Weaker than expected UK exports drove Cable down to 1.6586 , also pressured by the Russian situation before it bounced later in the session and finished on its highs.read more
Sup 1.6625 1.6600 1.6585
USD/CHF: 0.8720 Outlook
Res 0.8750 0.8775 0.8800 Negative Risk sentiment and heavy USD sales against safe haven currencies such as the Chf persisted into Friday’s close.read more
Sup 0.8700 0.8660 0.8630
AUD/USD: 0.9030 Outlook
Res 0.9050 0.9070 0.9100 The Aud had a quiet day on Friday stuck within a 50 point range above 0.9000, with most players not wanting to get involved ahead of the weekend Crimea referendum.read more
Sup 0.9000 0.8985 0.8950
NZD/USD: 0.8530 Outlook
Res 0.8550 0.8580 0.8600 The Kiwi consolidated its gains below Thursday’s 0.8605 high and with the shorter term indicators pointing a bit lower I suspect we are in for a bit more of the same in the next session or two.read more
Sup 0.8520 0.8500 0.8480
Commodities / Indices
ASX SPI: 5310 Outlook
Res 5325 5340 5350 The SPI is looking very heavy and the daily momentum suggest that there could be plenty more downside to come, particularly if the situation in the Ukraine escalates and spooks global stocks..…..scroll down
Sup 5300 5290 5280
S+P Futs: 1840 Outlook
Res 1850 1860 1870 The S+P looks to me as though it is heading down towards Fibo support at 1828 (23.6% of 1639/1887) and possibly lower towards 1805…..scroll down
Sup 1835 1828 1815
DJI Futs: 16060 Outlook
Res 16100 16150 16200 As with the S+P, the Dow looks as though it intends to move lowe.…..scroll down
Sup 16000 15900 15800
GOLD: 1382 Outlook
Res 1385 1390 1400 Gold is enjoying the ride higher on the back of the Russian aggression in Crimea and if the situation escalates then there is not too much to stop it heading above Friday’s high at 1388 …..scroll down
Sup 1375 1360 1350
SILVER: 21.45 Outlook
Res 21.50 21.70 21.85 Silver tried for the topside in following Gold higher but got slapped back into place rather quickly once it reached 21.77 to finish the week below 21.50 once again…..scroll down
Sup 00.00 00.00 00.00
OIL(WTI): 99.02 Outlook
Res 00.00 00.00 00.00 As we thought on Friday, WTI squeezed a bit higher with players not wishing to be caught short over the weekend.…..scroll down
Sup 21.20 21.00 20.85

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