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A pretty hectic session on Friday saw a dash for the exit by US$ bulls, with further pressure looking likely in the days to come. The stronger EU CPI data came ahead of Mario Draghi speaking to the EU Parliament today and the ECB Meeting on Thursday – leaving the market wondering whether the ECB has room to ease rates. Key focus elsewhere this week will be on the RBA, BOE meetings and on Friday’s US Jobs/NFP data. We also get the monthly PMI releases, starting today. The Aud sees plenty of action, starting today with the TD Inflation, Mfg PMI, Home Sales, ANZ Job Ads, HSBC China Mfg PMI and China Non–Mfg PMI. Throw in the Ukraine debacle and the weakening Yuan concerns and it looks like a busy week all round!
Please note that we now put out a daily video of thoughts for the coming day which can be found on our Facebook page. Read the full FXCharts Weekly Outlook here or scan the market summary below.
|Res||1.3830||1.3860||1.3890||Euro headed sharply higher on Friday against the dollar after the CPI data release eased the pressure for ECB to take action to ease rates at the upcoming meeting on Thursday…read more|
|Res||102.00||102.40||102.65||Despite the S+P making new all time highs on Friday, the Nikkei and $/Jpy were unable to make any real gains as the recent close correlation appears to be diverging and the dollar as elsewhere seems to be in some trouble.…read more|
|Res||1.6770||1.6800||1.6820||Cable tripped stops above 1.6700, en route to an early Europe high of 1.6744, after the release of strong house price data..…read more|
|Res||0.8830||0.8850||0.8885||The dollar finally took out the support at 0.8850 triggering the stops below it and heading straight down to 0.8777.…read more|
|Res||0.8960||0.8985||0.9000||The Aud was unable to make any recovery at all on Friday, not assisted by China lowering the Yuan fixing again …read more|
|Res||0.8400||0.8430||0.8460||The ongoing run of positive economic data continued on Friday with the better than expected Business Confidence, further underlining the chance of an RBNZ rate hike at their upcoming March 13 meeting…read more|
|Commodities / Indices|
|ASX SPI: 5415||Outlook|
|Res||5430||5440||5450||The index bounced around either side of 5400 on Friday between 5431/5383 but finished on a positive note, assisted by the run higher in the US indices.…read more|
|S+P Futs: 1860||Outlook|
|Res||1865||1875||1885||The S+P made another all time high on Friday reaching 1866 before retreating a swift dive on Ukraine concerns.…read more|
|DJI Futs: 16325||Outlook|
|Res||16380||16400||16450||The Dow made it up to 16386 before a swift 180 point dive on Ukraine headlines and then an equally sharp bounce to finish 50 points off its highs.…read more|
|Res||1335||1345||1355||Gold had a quiet finish to the week, holding above support at 1320.…read more|
|Res||21.50||21.70||22.00||Silver had another very quiet day on Friday stuck between 21.00/50.…read more|
|Res||102.85||103.00||103.50||Oil had an inside day doing little of interest within the 101.80/102.92 range…read more|
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